Civil aviation safety is based on managing the safety of knowledge of things that can affect the safety of flight. One of these sets of knowledge is confidence that the facilities at the destination will be good enough to give confidence of a safe landing. Weather at the destination can affect the safety of a landing. Detailed historical records are kept of weather observations and weather forecasts. This study has analysed the level of statistical confidence that has been achieved with destination weather forecasts under various conditions. It has also looked at other mechanisms that are or could be used to reduce the risk in addition to the existing methods.
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